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Historically, these calculations required days of computer time to finalize. Impact probabilities are then coupled with current demographics (land populations, commercial and military ship traffic, and aircraft traffic) to produce expected casualty predictions for a particular launch window. Impact probabilities are computed based upon probabilistic density functions, Monte Carlo trajectories of dispersion events, and missile failure scenarios. Probabilistic calculations of risk may be used in place of the total containment of potentially hazardous debris during a missile launch operation. Sandia National Laboratories has developed a Near Real Time Range Safety Analysis Tool named PREDICT that is based upon a probabilistic range safety analysis process. ![]()
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